Asset Returns Under Model Uncertainty: Eveidence from the euro area, the U.K and the U.S

The goal of thes paper is to analyze predictability of future asset returns in the context of model uncertainty. Using data for the euro area, the US and the U.K., we show that one can improve the forecasts of stock returns using a Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) approach, and there is a large amount of model uncertainty. The empirical evidence for the euro area suggests that several macroeconomic, financial and macro-financial variables are consistently among the most prominent determinants of risk premium. As for the U.S, only a few number of predictors play an important role. In the case of the UK, future stock returns are better forecasted by financial variables. These results are corroborated for both the M-open and the M-closed perspectives and in the context of "in-sample" and "out-of-sample" forescating. Finally, we highlight that the predictive ability of the BMA framework is stronger at longer periods, and clearly outperforms the constant expected returns and the autoregressive benchmark models.stock returns, model uncertainty, Bayesian Model Averaging

L’Intégration Européenne et la Soutenabilité Externe de l’Union Européenne: une application de la thèse de Feldstein-Horioka

The Feldstein-Horioka thesis was considered one of the greatest puzzles in economics. Born to measure international capital mobility, has known a process of immunisation to be conformed to empirical evidence and respect econometric knowledge. We apply to EU countries a formulation of the thesis which is adequate to test external sustainability and international capital mobility. Applying appropriate methods we conclude for the external sustainability of enlarged Europe as well as for high level of capital mobility. The capital mobility is more important for the old EU than for the enlarged one.Feldstein-Horioka, Mobilité du Capital, Épargne, Investissement, Contrainte extérieure

The PIGS, does the Group Exist? An empirical macroeconomic analysis based on the Okun Law

Will the current crisis accelerate the PIGS collapse? We approach the subject by comparing the responses of the unemployment rate to an output shock on those economies (Portugal, Italy, Greece and Spain) with those of a benchmark economy – the USA. Our methodological strategy relies on one of the pillars of empirical macroeconomics the Okun Law (OL) which we incorporated in a VAR model. We addressed two drawbacks usually present in OL, the interdependency problem and the non-stationarity problem. We have included in our models the participation rate as a way to overcome the former problem and for the later one we have analysed the time series properties of the variables used on our models. We propose stable VAR models for each of the economies involved and also a fixed-effects panel-VAR for the PIGS. The time for the absorption of shocks and the disequilibrium levels are much more favourable to USA, but we conclude also that in terms of unemployment we are not allowed to consider the PIGS as a homogenous group.Okun Law, C-I, VAR, Participation rate, Stability and Impulses.

Output and inflation responses to credit shocks: are there threshold effects in the euro area?

This paper investigates whether output and inflation respond asymmetrically to credit shocks in the euro area. The methodology, based on a non-linear VAR system, follows work by Balke (2000) for the US. The results reveal evidence of threshold effects related to credit conditions in the economy. Consistent with this finding, the impulse responses show some signs of asymmetric responses over the lending cycle. JEL Classification: E51, C15, C32asymmetric shocks, credit, euro area, non-linearities

Why has broad money demand been more stable in the euro area than in other economies? A literature review

JEL Classification: E41, C22, C32Aggregation, euro area, financial innovation, Money demand

Monetary policy shocks in the euro area and global liquidity spillovers

This paper analyses the international transmission of monetary shocks with a special focus on the effects of foreign money ("global liquidity") on the euro area. We estimate structural VAR models for the euro area and the global economy including a global liquidity aggregate. The impulse responses obtained show that a positive shock to extra-euro area liquidity leads to permanent increases in the euro area M3 aggregate and the price level, a temporary rise in real output and a temporary appreciation of the real effective exchange rate of the euro. Moreover, we find that innovations in global liquidity play an important role in explaining price and output fluctuations in the euro area and in the global economy. JEL Classification: E52, F01International spillovers, monetary policy, Structural VAR

A Byzantine Fault-Tolerant Ordering Service for the Hyperledger Fabric Blockchain Platform

Hyperledger Fabric (HLF) is a flexible permissioned blockchain platform designed for business applications beyond the basic digital coin addressed by Bitcoin and other existing networks. A key property of HLF is its extensibility, and in particular the support for multiple ordering services for building the blockchain. Nonetheless, the version 1.0 was launched in early 2017 without an implementation of a Byzantine fault-tolerant (BFT) ordering service. To overcome this limitation, we designed, implemented, and evaluated a BFT ordering service for HLF on top of the BFT-SMaRt state machine replication/consensus library, implementing also optimizations for wide-area deployment. Our results show that HLF with our ordering service can achieve up to ten thousand transactions per second and write a transaction irrevocably in the blockchain in half a second, even with peers spread in different continents

Identifying asset price booms and busts with quantile regressions

This paper presents a methodology for detecting asset price booms and busts using non-parametric quantile regressions. The method consists in estimating the distribution of real stock prices as a function of fundamental determinants of stock returns, namely real economic activity and real interest rates. It is shown that changes in fundamentals affect not only the location but also the shape of the conditional distribution of stock prices. Asset price booms and busts are identified as realizations on the tails of that distribution. Then we use several indicators to analyse the behaviour of money and credit around the boom and bust episodes.

The Fundamentals of the Portuguese Crisis

This paper analyses the fundamentals of the Portuguese crisis. The financial crisis of 2007 worsened and triggered the current Portuguese crisis. We argue that the main problem that the economy is facing is its output stagnation due to a kind of Dutch disease that has created high and increasing levels of indebtedness, low and decreasing levels of saving and has reduced Portuguese competitiveness. Moreover, the existence of a dualist labour market and a new vague of emigration reproduces inefficiency increasing unemployment of younger workers and the supply of human capital abroad funded by the Portuguese taxpayers. Governance problems such as bad public budget governance, lack of transparency and accountability are also at stake and have to be solved to allow the economy to return to its long-run growth path.Growth, Debt, Saving, Dutch disease, Unemployment, Budget policy.